USA - Past Peak Electricity Consumption

Nice article in Bloomberg explaining another reason why coal is not coming back. U.S. electricity demand is flat and heading down, even with economic growth. Lots of reasons for this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-12/the-de-electrification-of-the-u-s-economy

Clean Coal? Bad Joke!

How clean is "clean coal"? Well, if by "clean coal" you mean anything other than carbon capture and storage (CCS), the answer is "dirtier than everything else except older, even worse coal."

As this nice summary of Credit Suisse research at Macrobusiness points out, even "advanced ultra super critical" technologies involve more twice the CO2 of gas combined cycle. Of course, other gas combined heat and power solutions can do better yet!

And carbon capture and storage is not advancing toward commercialization and seems to have a number of significant issues.

And it is absolute folly to invest in new ultra super-critical plants today, since they only achieve very modest CO2 reductions over old plans, and they will be around for the next 50 years or more once built.

See:  https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/04/clean-coal-bad-joke/

Heck, even the Kentucky "coal mining museum" is adding solar.

So remember:  coal belongs IN the museum: and solar belongs ON the roof!

Trump Administration vs. Science

Miscalculating the social cost of carbon -- coming soon to the U.S.A. to justify the result the climate change deniers want.


http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2017/03/the-hidden-impact-of-trumps-energy-executive-order-000384

Coal in the USA - plants to close despite Trump

Some more about coal in the USA?

Reuters reports 2 more coal plant closings announced this week, for mid-2018 (3000MW).

"U.S. power companies retired or converted over 14,000 MW of coal-fired plants in 2016 after shutting a record of over 17,000 MW in 2015, according to Thomson Reuters data."  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-coal-closures-idUSKBN16R2D4

Coal Power Plants Frozen in India and China - Japan is the Odd Man Out

As the Japanese government looks to expand coal's share over the next 15 years (and reduce gas), Japan looks increasingly like a global outlier. Of course, even with President Trump's cheerleading for coal, it is not likely any new coal plants will be built in the U.S.A.  And China and India have recently "frozen" construction of over 100 new plants, according to the Financial Times.

The global pipeline for new coal power plants is shrinking dramatically, giving hope that at least the COP21 Paris climate commitments can be met.

Of course, as the article also notes, Japan has lots of new coal plants on the drawing board. And Vietnam and Indonesia continue to push development/construction of new coal plants. Who is supplying, financing and building those plants?

U.S. Solar installation in 2016 -- up 95% over 2015 -- total 14.6GW ... Japan off 20% to 8.6GW

So if China had a HUGE years with 34GW new solar installed, at least the U.S. was no slouch, with 14.6GW.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-solar-market-grows-95-in-2016-smashes-records

As for Japan, based on the METI feed-in tariff statistics installations have been gradually tapering off over the past 12 months (at least through October 2016, the latest data METI has made available). RTS puts Japan 2016 installations at 8.6GW, down from 10.6GW in 2015. The bloom is off the rose.

Sunday Morning Feb 12, 2017 - Wind Power supplies >50% of U.S. Great Plains Area Grid Electricity

For the first time, wind power supplied a MAJORITY of the electricity in a major U.S. region - the Southwest Power Pool.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/wind-on-the-plains-supplied-more-than-half-region-s-power-needs

It sux to be in the coal business these days.

More gas

Bloomberg reports that recent natural gas discoveries under the Eastern Mediterranean are huge:

"The whole area from Cyprus to Lebanon and Egypt may be sitting on even bigger gas fields. The United States Geological Survey estimates they could hold more than 340 trillion cubic feet, an amount that would surpass U.S. proven reserves, though many in the industry think the actual volume may be lower."

Of course, Europe now gets its gas from Russia, Norway, and a mix of other sources - North Africa and even now the U.S. Gulf and East coasts.

If some of this Mediterranean gas resource can be developed, it will shift demand away from Russia and Norway. To the extent of a shift from Russia, Russia will look to export more to China and Asia. And North American gas exporters will seek other markets in the Americas and Asia.  That will push back against potential development of new resources from Madagascar to Canada.

Still, the bountiful nature of natural gas finds suggests to me that the world CAN move away from coal at a faster pace, with just a little political will.  It also suggests that we need to accelerate research, development and commercialization efforts at using natural gas as efficiently as possible. It is going to be with us for awhile, and it should be the last fossil fuel we are using as we continue on a longer scale transition to 100% renewables.

BNEF Publishes Predictions for 2017

You can find BNEF Advisory Board Chair Michael Liebreich and Chief Editor Angus McCrone's ten predictions for 2017 this link.

A few highlights (quoting from the report):

• "Super-low-cost renewable power – what we are now calling “base-cost renewables” – is going to force a revolution in the way power grids are designed, and the way they are regulated.

• The old rules were all about locking in cheap base-load power, generally from coal or hydro plants, then supplementing it with more expensive capacity, generally gas, to meet the peaks. The new way of doing things will be about locking in as much locally-available base-cost renewable power as possible, and then supplementing it with more expensive flexible capacity from demand response, storage and gas, and then importing the remaining needs from neighbouring grids.

• New nuclear plants will remain the political bauble they currently are, unless next-generation nuclear can prove it can deliver fail-safe designs at affordable cost. Demand will be suppressed by energy efficiency and self-generation, and augmented by electrified transport and heat.

• Putting super-cheap, “base-cost” renewable power at the heart of the world’s grids in this way will require a revolution in the way the electricity system is regulated.

Nonetheless global markets in renewable energy will slow in 2017, because of (1) cost/price reductions, (2) China slowdown, and (3) Japan:

• The third reason is Japan, where the runaway solar boom of recent years has turned to the predicted bust, and few utility-scale plants are likely to be given grid permits from now on. Instead, rooftop solar will become the main game, but its best years lie some way in the future, not in 2017.

As for cost and price -- BNEF predicts another 25% drop in module prices and 10% overall system cost drop, this year!

Just imagine the headline "nuclear power system cost to fall another 10% in 2017"?  Pretty hard to imagine. All we get is "if you pay $100 billion now to develop it, the next generation should be cheaper and safer ... no guarantees though folks", and not a really good track record of delivering on time and under budget. Meanwhile, the nuclear sector seems to have much bigger, and almost as numerous, corporate financial disasters as the solar PV sector.

Japan's plans are a bit underwhelming, and will likely continue to be so until the electricity sector deregulation is implemented down the road.  But at least as a result of the feed-in tariff, Japan has a base of domestic AND foreign participants in the electricity sector who will play a role in pushing the energy transition going forward. And its manufacturers will see the incredible global business opportunities they will have IF they can incubate successfully in the domestic market.

The U.S. is likely to backslide significantly at the Federal level, but that is a topic for another day.

US cedes leadership on climate change

This NY Times article spells it out. The Obama Administration quickly restored America's position in the world as a leader of a community of nations. The Trump Administration trashed that during the transition and the Inaugural address, with climate change one of many areas where we may have a bumpy road ahead.

Meanwhile China already seized the mantle this week at the World Economic Forum ... with India perhaps not far behind.

China adds 34GW of solar PV in 2016

China solar additions in 2016 reported at 34 Gigawatts.  That is a huge number.

Meanwhile, Japan's 2016 solar additions are ... well, I do not know since the METI site which tracks FIT projects (the vast bulk of the total) only shows additions through September. Maybe BNEF or RTS has

Over the first 3 quarters, Japan added approximately 600MW of residential solar capacity), and 4.95GW of commercial and industrial solar (in each case measured by AC not DC module capacity. So a nine month total of 5.55GW.

In the months leading up to September 30, monthly completions were running at around 75MW residential and 425MW commercial/industrial, so by year end Japan may have added an additional 1.5GW, putting the total around 7.05GW (AC) --maybe between 8GW and 9GW DC.)

That number would be MUCH lower than the BNEF Japan forecast at the beginning of the year of 13.2-14.3GW. And only about 25% of China.  Japan has likely ceded the #2 solar market position to the US and perhaps also has slipped behind India.  And Japan will fall further in 2017, and in 2018.

Renewables and CO2 emissions under a Trump Administration ... ban wind and solar in Wyoming??

The incoming Trump administration campaigned on bringing back jobs to coal country by ... bringing back coal (!).  Trump threatened (tweeted?) about pulling the U.S. out of the COP 21 accord. Then again, he met with Al Gore and said he has an "open mind" on things related to climate change. And some of his buddies in private equity and finance invest in renewables.  So there was hope. Next, he nominated a bunch of neanderthals to run the EPA, Department of Energy and other posts that might have something to do with U.S. climate change and renewables-related policies. All hope was lost. Or was it?

So like many policy areas, we know that we may be in for a very rough ride with a Trump administration, but do not really know what they will do.

I have drawn comfort from a couple things.

First, the price of renewables (and storage) are dropping so fast that we are beyond the point of turning back.  Likewise, electrification of the transport fleet will continue.

Second, businesses cannot plan based on a 2-year or 4-year election cycle.  A U.S. utility would be crazy to plan a new coal plant starting today just because of the results of the 2016 election -- the asset would probably, very likely, be stranded before it is complete. A total write-off. (Indeed, this is why the ExxonMobils of the world support a carbon tax -- they want a global, predictable price for CO2 emissions that makes it possible to plan long-term investments).

Third, much of the most aggressive policy in the U.S. promoting renewables has come out of state public utility commissions (PUCs) and legislatures, not from Washington.  So even if the EPA's "clean power plan" is dead on day one of the Trump Administration, the states with a healthy share of of the nation's population and energy consumption.

But what I was not counting on was THIS kind of activity (see link). Wyoming has both huge coal and very plentiful wind resources. Now the legislature is trying to ban the state utilities from using wind and solar power. Wow. Talk about interference with the "free market"!

Let's hope this does not pass.

Of course, even if Wyoming does pass this legislation, it will not be such a big thing for U.S. renewables policy. Despite Wyoming's bountiful energy resources, it has a very small population -- less than 2% the size of California.  So a regulation that involves the state's sources of electric power is only a drop in the bucket compared with what major states are doing.  And do not be surprised if certain other states and localities (especially up and down the west coast) do everything in their power to block Wyoming coal shipments for export (if they are not already doing so). There are limits on that kind of activity (under the interstate commerce clause of the U.S. constitution, many local regulations of transportation activity are "pre-empted"), but there is often a way.

Exxon Supports a Carbon Tax

Several years ago, all the major European oil and gas "majors" (Shell, BP, Total) were publicly advocating for a globally consistent "carbon tax".

But Exxon and Chevron, the two largest U.S. based oil companies, declined to join the group, saying they wanted to retain individual control of their "messages" on these issues. 

So now, as we enter 2017 and Exxon's former CEO is nominated for Secretary of State, what is Exxon's position?  The company supports a carbon tax. You can read it in the NY Times, December 30, 2016 opinion page (below).  And this has been their position for awhile, and for good reason.

As for Chevron, they support ... well, lots of nice vague words on their website policy page about the need for global solutions to complex problems. It looks like a bunch of baloney to me that refuses to face up to a life and death issue. And they are selling their Asia geothermal operations which are the bulk of their global geothermal assets.  I guess they need the cash to complete major natural gas investments, so no place for renewables when the projects being sold represent the bulk of their portfolio?

The Future of Solar Pt 4

It is raining hard this week in Tokyo, and I have not seen the sun clearly once since I got back from a trip to the U.S. nine days ago.  Be that as it may, it is hard not to be optimistic about the future of solar, even in typhoon season. September is the month in Japan when it rains more than in the official "rainy season".

Technology and cost reduction march onward.

1. Last week, Kaneka, a Japanese company, announced a record 26.33% conversion efficiency for a "practical size" crystalline silicon solar PV cell.  Kaneka is targeting an LCOE of 14 yen/kWh in 2020 and 7 yen/kWh in 2030.  Kaneka's is a non-concentrating cell with "heterojunction technology using high-quality amorphous silicon, low resistance electrode technology, and a back-contact structure that captures more solar energy".  Nice to see Kaneka still in the game, since they are mostly known in the global industry for their earlier thin-film modules that faded when undercut dramatically by cost reductions for traditional crystalline PV modules within the past decade.

2. This is only the latest of MANY new records for cell and module efficiency this year.  Indeed, it is hard not to yawn a bit since we are so accustomed to seeing these.  The PV Magazine brief online article about Kaneka's feat also mentions or links to stories about

--Sunpower's module efficiency record of 24.1% set in June using cells from SunPower's X-Series modules.
--ZSW's 22.6% CISG thin film record from June.
--Trina's announcing in July 20.16% average efficiency for Trina's P-type multicrystalline silicon PERC cell under "industrially produced conditions" (as opposed to laboratory tests), allowing a 286w standard 60 cell module (as opposed to the 260 watt modules we were using only a year or two ago).
--Hanwha Q Cells' announcement of a 19.5% efficiency for a 72 cell module using standard multicrystalline silicon technology using its Q.UANTUM technology and four busbars.

3.  Of course, 7 yen/kWh LCOE might not be an aggressive enough target for 2030, even if 50% less than the Kaneka 2020 target.  We now see numerous PPA's in desert areas of the world for projects to be built in the 3~4 cent per kWh range.  (E.g. Peru - Enel Green Power 4.8 cents/kWh for construction in 2017, Coahuila Mexico 3.6 cents/kWh for construction in 2018, Dubai/Masdar 2.99 cents/kWh for construction 2019, and Chile, Solarpack, 2.91 cents/kWh, for construction 2019.)

... solar power takes up too much space?

This nice summary at a global level by Adair Turner notes that there is plenty of room for solar and wind power in most countries AND a low enough cost that "within 20 years many countries could get a majority of their electricity from renewable sources at an easily affordable price."  He notes that in a few countries with high population density (e.g. India, Bangladesh, S. Korea) we may need to add some nuclear and carbon recapture technologies to make a swift transition to a zero carbon economy. And some rich countries (Britain) may prefer to pay a bit more for electricity to place their wind farms offshore, for aesthetic reasons.

Japan (and Germany) are absent from the analysis.  Japan's population density (336 persons per square kilometer) is lower than S. Korea (507), India (407), Taiwan (647), Bangladesh (1119) and similar.  But like Britain Japan has a strong "NIMBY" tradition that allows localities to veto many types of developments.  So site availability will continue to be an issue for renewables in Japan.

Some ways around the issue:

Solar -- as much rooftop and BIPV as possible, on every new house and commercial or industrial structure!  Floating solar on ponds, reservoirs, etc.  Solar greenhouses.

Wind -- offshore with floating projects as they become commercially viable, and massive new capacity additions in Tohoku and Hokkaido with sufficient transmission capacity to get the power to demand centers in Kanto (and Kansai).