Monday, July 22, 2013

Fukushima Dai-Ichi -- Is it Still News?

I have heard two ACCJ (American Chamber of Commerce in Japan) guest speaker presentations in the past year where a foreign expert on the nuclear industry -- one primarily a regulator, the other a consultant/academic -- has complained about the approach the Japanese press has taken to reporting on the Fukushima nuclear accident.  Both speakers grumbled that as long as the press keeps dramatising events related to Fukushima, it will be difficult for the nuclear industry to regain trust of the Japanese people and for nuclear reactors to play a role in Japan's energy future.

Indeed, a recent public opinion poll suggests that 94% believe the Fukushima accident is not "under control", and yes, the press does report on some continued, very real, issues at the plant.

But my view is that the press coverage of Fukushima is not one-sided or anti-nuclear.  Instead, it largely reflects the editorial views of the particular media conglomerate.

Thus, the "progressive" Asahi Shimbun and Asahi TV are predictably happy to report about ugly goings on regarding Fukushima.

Meanwhile, the "conservative" Yomiuri seems to want to say the bare minimum about Fukushima. Stories about Fukushima get in the way of its effort to "accentuate the positive" and support the LDP government.  The Yomiuri seems to be completely aligned with the government program to restart the reactors.  Its editorials claim nuclear power is essential, and safe, and its news reporters seem to fall in line to the maximum extent possible.

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun, meanwhile, seems to be aligned with the leaders of the business community and the Keidanren (Japan Federation of Economic Organizations), who believe nuclear power is essential to the survival of the Japanese economy, at least over the near and medium-term.

Mainich Shimbun, Fuji-Sankei Group (conservative) -- I do not really know since I do not read or watch their news outlets regularly.

Just one example -- during last week's lead up to the House of Councillors election -- a very politically sensitive period -- a story comes out that up to 2000 workers for TEPCO and its subcontractors received high radiation doses (over 100 millisieverts) in their activities at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, and are thus at heightened risk of thyroid cancer.  This was ten times the number of workers who had previously been said to have received such doses.

According to Asahi Shimbun, TEPCO only released the news once it became clear that the World Health Organization questioned the company's method of calculating doses, and planned to release the information -- so that workers would be aware of the situation.  Also, TEPCO does not really know how large the doses were, since most of the workers did not have timely tests of their thyroid. Now, 28 months after the accident and much of the exposures, TEPCO has agreed to pay for regularly testing of workers exposed to 100 millisieverts or more.

This story got major coverage in the Asahi Shimbun.  It also got major coverage in the English language Japan Times.

In the Yomiuri?  Not so much, and only several days later via a wire service report, buried on a lower inside page, next to a much larger story about TEPCO's plans to file an application to restart the Kashiwazaki Kariba plant, reactors 6 and 7.  Here is a comparison of the degree of coverage in the Asahi and Yomiuri English language papers web sites (which reflects the offline English and original Japanese versions, in this case).

Asahi (July 19, 2013) online edition:

TEPCO now says 2,000 Fukushima workers exposed to high radiation doses

Estimated radiation doses in thyroid glands exceeded safe levels in nearly 2,000 people who worked at the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant, more than 10 times the number previously announced, The Asahi Shimbun has learned.
The larger figure was deduced after doubts were raised both at home and abroad over the results of Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s belated first study on the workers’ health.
TEPCO, the nuclear plant’s operator, said in December that radiation doses topped 100 millisieverts--the widely accepted threshold for an increase in the risk of cancer--in 178 people, with a maximum reading of 11,800 millisieverts.
But that figure covered only a fraction of those who have braved the high radiation levels to try to bring the nuclear crisis under control.
The workers themselves say TEPCO has provided little or no information about radiation doses in their thyroid glands. Some have stopped working at the crippled Fukushima No. 1 plant.
The new figure is based on a review of an expanded number of study subjects.
TEPCO and its partner companies not only re-evaluated the readings from thyroid gland dose tests, but they also estimated doses when the amount of radioactive iodine that entered the body was unavailable. These estimates were based on cesium intake amounts, the airborne iodine-to-cesium ratio on the days they worked, and other data.
The latest study showed that doses topped the 100-millisievert mark in 1,973 workers. In one worker, the estimated thyroid gland dose increased by more than 1,000 millisieverts during the review.
A thyroid gland dose reflects the amount of internal exposure to radioactive iodine that has entered the body through inhalation and other processes. The thyroid gland doses received during the early stages of the nuclear disaster, which started in March 2011, account for most of the potential internal damage to the Fukushima plant workers.
Early on in the crisis, health experts warned about the risks of high radiation doses received by the workers. But TEPCO was late in opening a full-scale investigation into the thyroid gland doses.
The utility submitted data about the doses to the World Health Organization. However, TEPCO only released available data for some of the workers in December after it learned that the WHO was planning to disclose the information.
The data concerned 522 workers for whom thyroid gland dose test results were available.
It took TEPCO 28 months since the earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011, caused the nuclear disaster to learn that so many 
workers have been exposed to cancer-inducing levels of radiation doses in their thyroid glands.
Its re-evaluation also came after the U.N. Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, which received data from TEPCO, questioned the reliability of the company’s thyroid gland dose readings. Japan’s health ministry also ordered TEPCO and its partner companies to review the internal dose readings for the workers.
“We will provide and pay for annual, ultrasound thyroid gland tests to all workers with thyroid gland doses in excess of 100 millisieverts over their lifetimes,” a TEPCO public relations official said. “We have already notified those who are eligible for the checkups.”
But TEPCO said it does not know how many of those eligible workers have actually taken the tests. Sources said only about half of them have received the thyroid gland checkups.
In addition, the utility has not announced a schedule for the thyroid gland checkups for the workers and has yet to explain what it will do when it spots abnormalities during the tests.
Most of the study subjects with thyroid gland doses exceeding 100 millisieverts entered the Fukushima plant site early in the disaster and inhaled radioactive substances. TEPCO employees account for 976 of them, with the remainder employed by the utility’s main contractors and their subcontractors.
Several workers told The Asahi Shimbun that TEPCO has never provided a careful explanation about the risks of radiation exposure in thyroid glands. Some subcontractor workers have already quit their jobs, complaining that they were never told about the radiation doses or received any notification of thyroid gland tests.
The delay in the testing can be partly blamed on a health ministry policy, which says health control for nuclear plant workers should be based solely on whole-body doses.
The ministry has never taken the initiative to investigate thyroid gland doses in the Fukushima workers. It has left the task to TEPCO on a “voluntary” basis.
Some experts have emphasized that enhanced thyroid gland doses do raise the risk of cancer even if the whole-body doses remain modest. But the health ministry has maintained that whole-body dose control is sufficient.
The international consensus for the 100-millisievert threshold for an increased risk of cancer is based partly on studies following the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster.
The international standard for taking iodine tablets to block radiation exposure in thyroid glands, however, is 50 millisieverts.
Some health experts have said the cancer rate began increasing at the 50-millisievert level after the Chernobyl disaster.
Children are believed to be the highest at risk to thyroid gland doses. But a recent study showed the risk of cancer from thyroid gland doses rises even in people over 40, countering the previous belief that older people were far less susceptible to the cancer- inducing effects of radiation.
(This article was compiled from reports by Yuri Oiwa and Toshio Tada.) 


Yomiuri (July 21, 2013) online edition:

Higher cancer risk at Fukushima plant
July 21, 2013
Jiji Press
Nearly 2,000 workers at Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant face higher risks of thyroid cancer as their radiation exposure from the crisis that began at the plant in March 2011 exceeded a key threshold of 100 millisieverts, TEPCO officials have said.
Of all workers engaged in operations to contain the nuclear crisis triggered by the magnitude­9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami, 1,973 are estimated to have received radiation doses of over 100 millisieverts in their thyroid glands, according to the officials. 

So to any nuclear industry proponent who thinks the Japanese press is hindering the comeback of the nuclear industry, I say -- just read the Yomiuri.  You will need to look very carefully to find any negative news.


UPDATE:  Within a week after this post, continued and new water leakage at Fukushima, including leakage of highly radioactive water into the ocean, brought it back into the "mainstream" of Japanese news, with at least some coverage by ALL the major Japanese press.  Everyone seemed to acknowledge that this -- and the central government stepping in to assume control of some remediation operations from TEPCO -- constituted news worth reporting.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Market Forces Rising

Nikkei Shimbun carried an interesting story in mid-June about the evolving role of Tokyo Electric (TEPCO) with the "electric industry village" now that TEPCO is majority owned by the government's Fukushima accident compensation fund.

TEPCO was traditionally the leader of the 10 regional electric utilities.  It was the biggest by revenue, personnel, profit and visibility, and it took the lead on most matters of policy, with the other companies generally following behind and stepping into line.

Recently, however, TEPCO has been different.   It seems that one condition to the (first -- more to come) bailout was that TEPCO act as a positive force for change in the industry, in line with METI/government policies.  Initially, the group of electric utilities became leaderless.  Now, however, others are stepping up, and TEPCO is positively excluded from some of the discussions among the group presidents (which are commonplace, and are conducted via the Denki Jigyou Rengo Kai -- a group housed within the Keidanren Building and formed of the presidents of the utilities.  Needless to say, this group does not support major structural reforms of the industry, and so excludes TEPCO from some of its recent meetings.

How can TEPCO have an impact?  One recent example is through procurement reform.  From planning solar PV projects, we know that the prices we are told for construction of 66kV interconnect lines/towers in Japan is some significant multiple of what it would be in Europe, and the reason seems to be that the work has traditionally been doled out to affiliates/subsidiaries of the utilities (and their friends).

According to the Denki Shimbun July 4, 2013, TEPCO has recently announced that it has reformed its procurement of construction of transmission facilities, implementing a new competitive tender system.  In its first series of tenders, TEPCO saved 30-40% over the prices it would get previously.  Still higher pricing than elsewhere, but a big difference.  And a huge change if it carries over into the amount that we need to pay in planning larger solar PV projects.

Apparently, the other electric utilities are concerned they will be found out as not trying hard enough to obtain market-based pricing, and are struggling how to respond.  ...

Separation of Generation and Transmission

It is now election season in Japan, with an upcoming poll for the House of Councillors.  I happened to watch the leaders of the major (and minor) parties briefly on one of Japan's Sunday morning talk shows, and was pleasantly surprised to hear Prime Minister Abe specifically mention electricity reform and "separation of electricity generation and transmission" (発電、送電の分類) again as one of his growth measures.

Not only is this one of his list of Abenomics growth measures, but it is getting prominent attention.  It must play well as a counter to the chorus of voices that it is too early to restart the nukes, before the Fukushima accident has been cleaned up.