Thursday, June 16, 2016

IRENA Predicts Solar PV costs may fall another 59% by 2025 and installed base to grow 10X by 2030

The International Renewable Energy Agency is out with a study (click on this link to download it) predicting a FURTHER 59% reduction in solar PV globally weighted levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) between 2015 and 2025.  Onshore wind LCOE is predicted to fall by as much as 26%.   In this case, the charts and tables are more powerful than words.

According to the conclusions (summarized in the above table), potential global weighted LCOE for solar PV of US$0.06 per kWh by 2025, and US$0.05 per kWh for onshore wind.  No wonder that most of the new generation being planned in many places globally today is solar or wind.

UPDATE:  And just a few days later, still in June 2016, IRENA rolls out another study named "Letting in the Light" (downloadable at the link) which offers more sunny news.

IRENA predicts that, led by ongoing cost reductions, solar PV installations in Japan can reach 136GW by 2030.  This is more than double the Japanese government's politically influenced 2015 "energy mix" forecast for 2030, which predicted only 64GW, and much higher even than Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)'s reaction to the "energy mix" which suggested Japan would attain 95GW solar by 2030.  Globally, IRENA suggests that PV can go from 227GW (2015) to 1,760GW~2,500GW in 2030.

No comments:

Post a Comment